Growth of retail outlets sales: January-April 2013/14 On a January-April Year to Year comparison: Jewelry, watches, clocks saw a 12% decrease in retail sales. It accounts in 2014 for 21% of total retail sales in comparison to 24% in 2013. Consumer durable goods saw a decrease in retail sales. It accounts in 2014 for 17,2% of total retail sales in comparison to 17,7% in 2013. Clothing, footwear saw a 9% increase in retail sales. It accounts in 2014 for 14% of total retail sales in comparison to 13% in 2013.
Other consumer goods saw a 7,6% increase in retail sales. It accounts in 2014 for 19% of total retail sales in comparison to 17,7% in 2013. Growth of retail outlets: Y-Y April 2013-14 Hong Kong retail industry By tavern’s Jewelry, watches, clocks saw a 40% decrease in retail sales confirming the negative trend seen between January-April Consumer durable goods saw a 6,5% decrease confirming the negative trend seen between January-April Clothing, footwear saw an increase of 12% confirming the positive trend observed between January-April. ) Negative growth rate of Jewelry, clocks and watches The negative trend seen for Jewelry, clocks and watches can be explained by the allowing: According to Bloomberg and Business Week, Chinese customers are facing slower economic growth and thus shift their consumption towards necessity goods.
According to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Professor Chain Aka- gung decrease in retail sales for luxury goods is mainly due to the macroeconomic environment (slowdown of the mainland economy and change in consumer habits) These two sources explain the increase in other consumer goods retail sales (+7, 6%) when comparing January-April 2013-14. More specifically, the positive trend is shown through an increase in: Optical retail sales:+12% Medicine, cosmetics: +8. However, a study released by Price Water Cooper in 2012 on the “2013 outlook for the retail and consumer products sector in Asia” stated that: The future steady economic growth will drive local demand back towards luxury goods and away from utilitarian goods. Absence of sales taxes keeps the prices for luxury goods lower than in most other countries b) Negative growth rate of Consumer durable goods Growth of Consumer durable goods: Y-Y January-April 2013/14 Other consumer goods saw a 18,1% in retail sales, however it is mainly due to January as for three consecutive months retail sales have been declining as suggests the following table:
Jan 14 Feb. 14 Mar 14 Par 14 Jan-Par 14 Other consumer durable goods 90. 5% (19. 3%) (23. 0%) 18. 1% Note: Other consumer durable goods include: Retail outlets selling musical instruments, computers and peripheral units, computer software, medical goods, office appliances and equipment (except computers, furniture and fixtures), scientific and professional instruments, sewing machines and parts. Electrical goods and photographic equipment decreased by 15%. It accounts in 2014 for 41% of total Consumer durable sales in comparison to 47% in 2013. Decline in Electrical goods and photographic equipment has been steady as suggests the
Electrical goods and photographic equipment (18. 2%) (16. 0%) (15. 6%) (8. 3%) (14. 9%) To see where the decrease in consumer durable goods sales is coming from, 2 variables need to be studied: The number of consumer durable goods sold ( number of units sold) The Price of consumer durable goods Regarding price change, the ICP (consumer price index) index for durable goods suggests that price levels have continuously decreased on Y-Y comparison between January-April 2013/2014: Data provided suggests that price level of durable goods has indeed decreased which partly stems the drop in retail sales.
Regarding the number of consumer durable goods sold, 32,5% of retail sales value comes from incoming visitors ( in 2012) between decline in retail sales and the decline in incoming visitors. Ill) Growth rate of incoming visitors The following table provides a clear relationship between the number of visitors that come to Hong Kong and the evolution of retail sales. Jan Par 14 Jan Par 13/14 Growth of visitors (17. 9%) 14. 2% Retail sales growth (28. 8%) 0. 7% If we consider the period between January and April in 2014 the number of visitors decreased by 18% and is correlated with a decrease in retail sales of 28,8%.
If we ampere 2014 to 2013, number of visitors coming to Hong Kong has increased by 14,2%. Retail sales increases a bit over the same period by 0,7%. While we already saw that retail sales are disappointing because of consumption shifts and slow economic growth, evidence suggests that the slowdown in visitors also explains the negative trend of the retail market. In addition to that, world research institute Cavils reacted to the news that Chief executive Lounge Chunk-wing is considering limiting the number tourist’s arrivals (cut visas by 20%); by predicting that such measure would negatively impact retail by sales by 5% ($ban).
Summary on consumer durable products (CDC) retail sales January-April 13/14 Looking at visitors and local residents sales: Regarding Price/unit the ICP index indicates us that prices decreased by 3. 1% (in terms of ICP index change): Number of visitors increased by 14,2% and number of local residents keeps increasing Overall volume index for CDC has increased by 39% It therefore seems that the decline in CDC retail sales is explained by a decrease in the price level. (In addition to that, the pace at which number of units sold has increased was not high enough to compensate for the decline in the price level.