Cassandra Is obviously not the only forecaster, and sadly on occasion this particular modern-day soothsayer falls to match the Infallibility of his classical forebear. I say this because the England cricket team, despite my dire predictions of disappointment, has today handsomely defeated India in Iambi. So, it is in a spirit of humility that I offer these predictions for 2013 from alternative (l am 10th to say rival) forecasters, Professor Thomas Maligning of the MID business school in Lausanne and his colleague Tracey Keys of Strategy Dynamics Global.
Looking down their ten trends, I find myself general In agreement (though I’m not as selflessly as they are In number 7, and we have to bear In mind that a lot of what they say is more relevant to the years well beyond 2013). And quite what they mean by the “owners economy” in number 2 is a bit of a mystery… Still, well worth pondering, and well worth looking at the Goaltenders website. Meanwhile, here is their potted version: The great power shift 10 trends business leaders need to watch in 2013 Thomas W. Maligning and Tracey S.
Keys The great global redistribution of economic and social power will continue over the next 12 months. Power will flow away from traditional Institutions that have failed to liver progress – especially governments and banks. It will flow towards communities and individuals, and also to businesses whose leaders understand and act on the big trends shaping our future. This future looks uncertain and unstable. Hurricane Sandy was a deadly reminder of shifting climate patterns, emphasizing the need for new ways to manage the world’s resources and environment.
There are growing levels of social unrest over rising inequality, austerity, unemployment, political ineptitude, institutional failure and more. And companies will continue to fail because they misread the future – like Kodak, which invented the digital camera but filed for bankruptcy after focusing on its core film business instead. In our new Global Trends Report for 2013, we highlight 10 trends that business leaders need to focus on today. These are: 1 . Social everything: New generations and their digital world stepping forward Social technologies are now a central part of everyday life and work.
The social generations are reshaping companies from the inside, helping them to build broader, connectedness will be at the heart of the future business environment: communications and marketing are moving from a focus on one-to-one relationships, o many-to-many. 2. Redefining value: The consumer is winning the fight to own the new consumer The notion of value is being redefined for the 21st century. Consumers have choice. They want personalization, and to participate in value creation, shifting the mindset to “made with me. Value will also be about “shared with me” as the owners economy expands. This will be driven particularly by younger generations who value experiences they can share – and that also deliver benefits to society – over possessions. 3. Distributed everything: Mobility in production and consumption Mobility is entering a new stage. Not only does consumption occur anywhere, anytime, but the tools and resources to create and capture value are more broadly distributed too. Work is becoming increasingly distributed. Small-scale manufacturing, including AD printing, will reshape production.
Renewable technologies are distributing energy production, while mass teaching platforms are revolutionize education. Ask what can’t be distributed, not what can. 4. The next “industrial” revolution: Robots and smart machines reshaping work Smart machines and robots will redefine society. Robots are now being deployed as acceptations, banking assistants and even prison guards, while technology allows amateurs to do what professionals once did. The upside: addressing issues such as caring for ageing populations. The downside: huge Job losses. Yet the next wave of smart machines will also create new kinds of Jobs.
The challenge will be to ensure a workforce that is ready and skilled for them. 5. The new space race: Pushing the frontiers of technology once again? Scientific advances from national space programs have had a significant impact on how we live and work, from advanced materials to global telecommunications. Now, commercial space travel and exploration is a reality, even as a new space race hoots up, particularly between the US, China and Europe. New advances will surely result, as will questions over the ownership of space “assets,” and whether advances will be shared for public benefit. . Geopolitical wars: The fight to control the future The BRICKS and Beyond (other rapidly growing economies) will be where the fight to control future economic growth and social development will take place. It’s a political systems. Politicians, along with companies, are still trying to find and control heir place in the new world order, even as trust in governments falls, nationalism rises, and power shifts towards the people. The potential for radical political shifts at home and between nations is rising.